Linking Macro Policy Shifts to Technology Evolution: Integrating a Difference-in-Differences Model with Patent Keyword Networks

Macro policies such as the Paris Agreement are key external drivers of research and development (R&D) planning. Measuring their impact and reflecting the resulting technological changes in the R&D process are essential for sustaining competitive advantage. This study proposes a methodology for measuring the association between macro-level policy shifts and micro-level technological change. The proposed methodology integrates a difference-in-differences (DID) model with a patent keyword network to construct a technology change index that captures the emergence of new technological elements, the formation of new relationships, and changes in the intensity of existing relationships. A case study examining the impact of the Paris Agreement on the battery industry reveals heterogeneous policy sensitivity across different battery technologies—a heterogeneity that holds under both a covariate-adjusted and a covariate-free specification, although which technology carries the largest differential depends on that choice—and identifies, for each technology, the technological elements associated with post-policy innovation. These elements are further classified into firm-specific proprietary components and shared foundational components, providing insights for technology development strategies. By linking macro-level policy shocks to micro-level technological evolution, the proposed approach provides strategic implications for firms’ R&D planning and supports more targeted technology and innovation policies.