Cutting through the noise: What can habitat selection modeling teach us about caribou‐fire space use dynamics?

Abstract Wildfire is the dominant natural stand‐replacing disturbance across the boreal forest biome. Woodland caribou ( Rangifer tarandus caribou ) have historically persisted on such landscapes but are generally associated with old‐growth and mature conifer forest. In contrast, migratory barren‐ground caribou ( R. t. groenlandicus and R. t. granti ) have had less exposure to wildfire, with this disturbance agent primarily affecting forested areas of their winter range. It has long been assumed that wildfires reduce caribou habitat quality, leading to management strategies that aim to limit the proportion of disturbed habitat (<40 years) within caribou ranges. However, habitat selection studies reveal varying responses to fire by caribou subspecies and ecotype, season, forest type, region, and post‐fire successional stages. While some caribou habitat analyses embrace this 40‐year management cut‐off value, its applicability across ecological and management contexts and caribou populations remains less well understood. We conducted a review of peer‐reviewed and grey literature to synthesize caribou space use behavior in post‐fire environments, focusing on caribou subspecies and ecotypes, including migratory barren‐ground and woodland caribou, represented by both the sedentary and montane ecotypes. We further examined these responses only for sedentary caribou in relation to seasonality, forest type, and location (i.e., ecoregion and jurisdiction) because of insufficient studies across all caribou subspecies and ecotypes. We reviewed the published and unpublished literature ( n = 5,002) and found 50 relevant habitat selection studies published between 2000–2024. From these studies, we evaluated a suite of characteristics, such as sampling and methodological approach, and present post‐fire habitat selection trends. Our review revealed substantial methodological discrepancies undermining cross‐model results comparison if left unaddressed. To improve comparability, we recommend that researchers evaluating habitat selection carefully adjust their selection coefficients to account for differences in sampling ratios, reference categories and data centering. Despite an increasing number of habitat selection studies, migratory and montane caribou remain understudied relative to sedentary caribou. Overall, caribou subspecies and ecotypes exhibited different habitat selection trends. Migratory caribou generally selected older post‐fire habitats (>55 years) or habitats with no known recent fire history, whereas sedentary and montane caribou showed highly variable responses across post‐fire successional stages. The greatest variability occurred in response to early (0–20 years) to intermediate (21–28 years) post‐fire habitats at both the population (within population range) and individual (within individual home range) scales. Sedentary caribou responses further varied by region and dominant stand type, with seasonality exerting a relatively modest influence on space use patterns. Our synthesis highlights substantial variation in caribou responses to fire, with some studies reporting weak effects, emphasizing the value of regionally tailored habitat management strategies.