Assessing the Impact of Nigerian Government Responses to Armed Banditry in Northwest Nigeria, 2017–2025

Background Armed banditry in Northwest Nigeria has evolved from rudimentary cattle rustling into a coordinated security crisis claiming thousands of lives and displacing over 1.3 million persons between 2017 and 2025 according to various reports. Objective This study assesses the impact of Nigerian government responses to banditry during this period, examining whether interventions measurably reduced violence, strengthened state authority, restored human security, and addressed structural drivers of conflict. Methods A mixed-methods design combined quantitative analysis of survey data from 400 respondents across Zamfara, Katsina, and Kaduna states, using descriptive statistics, one-sample t-tests, one-way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), chi-square analysis, and multiple linear regression, with qualitative thematic analysis of thirty-eight key informant interviews and cross-state comparative analysis of secondary security data (2017–2025). Results Quantitative findings confirm that armed banditry materially undermined national security across all measured dimensions (composite mean = 4.31, p < 0.001). Government responses were acknowledged as active (mean = 3.52, 61.3% agreement) but perceived as failing to address root causes (mean = 2.01, 76.1% disagreement) and as ineffective in protecting lives and property (composite mean = 2.61, p < 0.001). Multiple linear regression identified community trust (β = 0.247), community consultation (β = 0.194), rebuilding programmes (β = 0.187), and inter-governmental collaboration (β = 0.165) as the strongest predictors of perceived security effectiveness (R 2 = 0.895). Conclusion Government responses have been predominantly reactive and militarized, achieving temporary tactical gains without sustainable civilian protection or structural transformation. Effective counter-banditry governance requires a strategic shift toward people-centered, integrated, and community-anchored approaches.