Survival analysis of U.S. regional airline routes during and after the COVID-19 pandemic

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. regional airlines have faced substantial operational challenges, including reduced flight activity, fleet restructuring, rising labor costs, and persistent pilot shortage. Between 2019 and 2024, domestic departures by regional airlines declined by nearly 24% from 3.81 million to 2.92 million, while passenger enplanements fell by 19% from 165.2 million to 133.7 million. Mainline carriers temporarily increased their reliance on regional partners during the pandemic but subsequently reduced regional operations during the post-pandemic recovery. Against this backdrop, we examine the determinants of route survival in U.S. regional airline markets during and after the pandemic. Using airline-route panel data for 2017–2024, we estimate Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying route-performance covariates. The results show that routes operated by independent regional airlines face significantly higher discontinuation hazards than those operated by wholly-owned subsidiaries of mainline carriers. Routes serving large hub airports exhibit higher survival probabilities, underscoring the importance of network connectivity beyond local market size. Support through the U.S. Essential Air Service (EAS) program is also associated with greater route survival, while larger aircraft are linked to improved route persistence, consistent with post-pandemic upgauging and capacity consolidation. The analysis also accounts for market demand conditions and operational characteristics, including population, per capita income, unit cost, stage length, and aircraft size. This study extends the literature by examining how ownership structure, network position, route performance, and EAS support jointly relate to regional route survival following the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings also inform EAS program design by highlighting the importance of risk-based route monitoring and service-continuity assessments that consider carrier structure, hub connectivity, market conditions, and fleet availability.