Circularity measures enhance resilience of net zero pathways for agriculture

Abstract Reducing environmental impact of agriculture is paramount for sustainable food production. Development of a circular bioeconomy can contribute to environmental objectives, yet the interaction of circularity measures with net zero strategies is poorly understood. Using integrated modelling and 12 key performance indicators, we assess the sustainability and resilience of two simulated circular strategies implemented within a business as usual and three net zero greenhouse gas emission pathways for Ireland’s land sector. Two circularity strategies were designed: Energy-focused circularity maximised domestic feedstock utilisation for bioenergy production via anaerobic digestion. Feed-focused circularity minimised imported (overseas) inputs to national livestock systems. Net zero requires large-scale transformation across the land sector. Circularity moderately enhances greenhouse gas emission reductions through energy and livestock feed substitution but considerably strengthens the resilience of net zero pathways by lowering dependence on imported fertilisers, feeds and/or energy (depending on the circularity strategy). This work highlights opportunities to embed circularity within net zero land use strategies to improve resilience.