Influence of Monitoring and Evaluation Systems on the Performance of County Flagship Projects in Kwale County, Kenya

Kenyan counties are required by law to operate integrated monitoring and evaluation (M&E) systems, yet about 30% of the flagship projects in Kwale County continue to run late and over budget. This study examined how three features of the county’s M&E system, namely data quality, budgetary allocation and the technical capacity of M&E personnel, influence the performance of these projects. A descriptive mixed-methods design with a cross-sectional survey was used. Evidence came from 119 completed questionnaires (a 96.0% response rate), fifteen key informant interviews, three focus group discussions and a review of county planning and budget documents. Quantitative data were analysed with Pearson’s correlation and binary logistic regression, and interview material was analysed thematically. All three pillars were rated poor. Mean index scores on a five-point scale were 1.94 for data quality, 1.69 for budgetary allocation and 1.86 for technical capacity, and 62.2% of respondents rated project performance as poor or very poor. Each pillar correlated strongly with performance (r = 0.712, 0.684 and 0.731 respectively; p < 0.001). In the logistic model all three remained significant predictors, and together they explained 63.3% of the variation in satisfactory performance (Nagelkerke R² = 0.633). Technical capacity had the largest odds ratio (3.71), followed by data quality (3.27) and budgetary allocation (2.52). Interview evidence suggested that the three weaknesses feed one another. The results indicate that county M&E reform should deal with data systems, protected funding and staff capacity together and not as separate projects.