An Expectancy-Value Model of Motivation, Engagement, and Physics Continuation Intentions in Senior Secondary Students

Abstract An Expectancy-Value Model of Motivation, Engagement, and Physics Continuation Intentions in Senior Secondary StudentsAbstract Declining enrolment and persistent gender imbalance remain two critical challenges in physics education, both in Australia and internationally. Although research on physics enrolment, particularly at the senior secondary level, is expanding, it has predominantly focused on variables that predict students’ initial intentions to enrol in future physics courses. However, relatively few studies have examined the motivational factors that sustain students’ intentions to continue studying physics after engaging with the enacted curriculum over an extended period. Understanding these sustained influences is critical for addressing attrition beyond the point of initial subject selection. Using a validated, gender-invariant survey instrument, data were collected from 247 students to assess their motivation and intention to pursue physics into their final year of secondary education. Structural Equation Modelling was employed to test a theoretically informed framework, revealing that interest value emerged as the strongest predictor of continued enrolment. In contrast to prior topic-specific models, this study highlights the variability of motivational patterns across the broader domain of physics, reflecting the level at which students make decisions about whether or not to enrol in the subject. Notably, no significant gender differences were found across most motivational constructs at the senior secondary level, although a significant gender difference was identified in sex stereotyped attitudes. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of how sustained engagement in physics is shaped and offer important implications for educational practice and curriculum design aimed at improving retention in senior secondary physics education.