Research on the Impact of Low-Altitude Economic Pilot Policy on Agricultural Carbon Emission Intensity and Its Mechanism―A Quasi-Natural Experiment in 169 Cities in China’s Major Grain-Producing Areas

Reducing agricultural carbon emission intensity (ACEI) is of great value for sustainable development. The low-altitude economy (LAE) has a significant impact on ACEI, but existing studies lack systematic theoretical analysis and empirical verification in this regard. Based on theoretical analysis, this study uses China’s nationwide low-altitude airspace management reform pilot policy as the core policy within the low-altitude economy pilot policy (LAEPP) to construct a quasi-natural experiment. It uses panel data for 169 cities in China’s 13 major grain-producing areas (MGPAs) from 2013 to 2023 and applies the difference-in-differences (DID) method to empirically analyze the impact of LAEPP on ACEI. The analysis reveals the following: (1) LAEPP has a significant negative impact on ACEI. On average, LAEPP reduces the ACEI of cities in the treatment group by 10.327% relative to that of the control group. This negative impact remains robust after a series of robustness checks. (2) LAEPP reduces ACEI by reducing pesticide intensity and improving agricultural labor efficiency. (3) The impact of LAEPP on ACEI is heterogeneous. When terrain undulation is greater or the educational level of the population is higher, the negative impact of LAEPP on ACEI is stronger. This study has several limitations. For instance, the spatial spillover effect was not considered; micro-level mechanisms were not explored; and some estimated data were used in the analysis. To promote ACEI reduction, further development of the LAE is recommended.