Global Financial Architecture Under Geopolitical, Financial and Policy Pressures: A Capacity–Pressure Index of Financial Resilience

Financial resilience depends on both prevailing pressures and the resources available to maintain financial functions. This study proposes a Global Financial Resilience Index (GFRI) that combines selected structural indicators with the inverse of geopolitical, policy, and market pressures. The formal retrospective sample covers January 2000–June 2026; July–August extensions are reported separately. Fixed-reference standardisation and geometric aggregation produce a transparent capacity–pressure composite, not a measure of environmental, social or intergenerational sustainability. Fixed-basket comparisons retain some capacity improvement, but a balanced five-indicator panel covers only 20 economies and 12.4–16.0% of global GDP. Country selection and calibration alter the pandemic-era ranking. The OECD growth-cycle mean difference is −8.30 points with HAC(12) p = 0.055. Classification AUC is 0.658, with a 12-month block-bootstrap 95% interval of 0.468–0.821, and does not improve on matched stress benchmarks. The incremental explanatory power of industrial production is negligible. Weight simulations and publication-lag tests reveal uncertainty in material construction. The index offers a reproducible description of selected capacity and pressure conditions; the evidence does not support operational policy bands, superior crisis prediction or comprehensive sustainability claims.