Early-life adversity and long-term outcomes: evidence from the cocoa swollen shoot virus outbreak in the Gold Coast

How do early-life economic shocks that do not directly affect human biology shape long-term development outcomes? While a large body of work documents persistent effects of early-life exposure to health crises, famines, and natural disasters, much less is known about shocks that operate through economic disruption. This study addresses this gap by examining the long-term effects of the Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus Disease (CSSVD), an agricultural epidemic that devastated cocoa production in the Gold Coast (now Ghana) during the 1940s. Combining historical data on climatically suitable cocoa-growing areas with georeferenced household survey data, I exploit variation in exposure across birth timing and space to estimate the epidemic’s long-term effects. The results show that exposure during early childhood and school-going years led to substantial and persistent human capital deficits. Individuals exposed during early childhood lost about one year of schooling and were 8.5 percentage points (pp) less likely to obtain formal education, while those exposed during school-going years lost about 0.8 years of schooling and were 7.0 pp less likely to obtain formal education. Exposure is also associated with worse health outcomes, increasing morbidity by 6.2–8.5 pp and disability by 5–7.5 pp. In contrast, there is no systematic evidence of long-term effects on employment type or labor supply. Evidence on potential mechanisms points to both educational and occupational channels. Conditional on ever attending school, exposed individuals completed fewer years of schooling and were more likely to have incomplete primary education, indicating disruptions to both school progression and initial access to schooling. In addition, exposed individuals are more likely to work in the agricultural sector in adulthood, consistent with reduced educational attainment having narrowed their occupational options. These findings demonstrate that industry-specific economic shocks can generate long-term human capital deficits, even in the absence of direct biological exposure.