Further Developments to Strengthen Regulation and Enforcement against Illicit Tobacco Trade in Australia

Illicit tobacco trade has become endemic in Australian retailing environments, creating numerous issues for the Commonwealth and State and Territory Governments alike. Data recently published by the Illicit Tobacco and E-cigarette Commissioner suggest that over half of Australia’s tobacco market is now comprised of illicitly traded products, resulting in an estimated loss of excise revenue between $7.7 billion to $11.8 billion (Australian Government 2025a ). Despite the exponential growth of the illicit market, in 2025, Australia recorded its lowest smoking prevalence rate at 5.6 per cent daily smoking among the population aged fourteen and over (Australian Government 2025b ). This suggests that Australia’s strong tobacco control policies, which include high tobacco excise and strict tobacco product requirements, continue to be effective (Winnall and Greenhalgh 2025 ), with the latter recently strengthened through the enactment of the Public Health (Tobacco and Other Products) Act 2023 (Cth)). Nevertheless, the well-established association between the illicit tobacco trade and organized crime syndicates creates an increased risk of gang-related violence in the community (e.g., more than 250 arson attacks on tobacco retailers since early 2023), with profits often used to fund trafficking of other illicit drugs (Borland et al. 2026 , 3–4; Alfares and Ison 2025 ).