The paradox of pro-extraction preferences in marginalised communities: Insights from the Yasuní-ITT referendum in Ecuador

The results of the 2023 referendum on a permanent ban on oil extraction in Ecuador's Yasuni-ITT oil fields revealed a paradoxical outcome. Of Ecuador's 24 provinces, only the oil producing Orellana and Sucumbíos voted in favour of continued extraction. This result is paradoxical because these provinces have historically borne the brunt of oil extraction's negative environmental, economic and public health impacts. The paper brings this paradox into dialogue with the critical literature on extractive industries. It argues that while concepts such as 'commodities consensus' and 'extractive imperative' help explain why extractivism persists at the level of national decision-making, attempts at explaining why and how pro-extractive preferences are sustained at the local level have been limited. Using socio-economic indicators, the paper demonstrates that the populations of Sucumbíos and Orellana suffer from various forms of socio-economic marginalization. The paper argues that decades of co-existence with oil extraction processes has created an economic dependence within the communities, which can be described as 'extractivism of the poor'. It also argues that this dependence eliminates real and perceived alternative paths to development within the population of these two provinces, which accounts for their continued support for extraction.