Multi-Step Wind Power Forecasting via CEEMDAN-Based Adaptive EWT and Frequency-Aligned GRU

Accurate multi-step wind power forecasting is important for power-system scheduling and renewable energy integration, yet the strong nonstationarity and multi-scale structure of wind power remain challenging. This study evaluates a CEEMDAN-based empirical wavelet transform (EWT) and frequency-aligned gated recurrent unit (GRU) framework for direct six-step forecasting. Each monthly series is first partitioned chronologically into training, validation, and test sets at a 7:1:2 ratio; CEEMDAN and EWT are then applied independently within the fixed partitions used for comparative evaluation. The decomposition atoms are aggregated into fixed physical frequency bands, providing a common representation across partitions. The validation set selects the EWT band subset used to denoise the leading high-frequency representation, and independent single-channel GRUs with temporal attention forecast the retained frequency-aligned components. Component forecasts are summed and constrained to the physical operating range. On twelve monthly subsets of the T1 SCADA dataset, the block-wise framework achieves equal-month averages of 3.9846% NMAE, 236.8220 kW RMSE, and 143.4440 kW MAE, outperforming a persistence baseline and seven trained benchmarks. The paired one-sided Wilcoxon tests show significant improvements over both CEEMDAN-GRU and CEEMDAN-EWT-LSTM for all three metrics. A strict origin-wise implementation, AdaptiveEWT+SDG, recomputes features only from the history available at each forecast origin. Across six initializations, it achieves 6.0050% NMAE, 376.2803 kW mean-horizon RMSE, and 216.1808 kW MAE, versus 6.0149%, 376.9031 kW, and 216.5353 kW for Persistence, confirming the adaptive-frequency principle under strictly sequential information.

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Publication Details

Journal
Applied Sciences
Published
2026-10-04
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/app16199836
Primary Topic
Energy Load and Power Forecasting
Type
article
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article

Multi-Step Wind Power Forecasting via CEEMDAN-Based Adaptive EWT and Frequency-Aligned GRU

Ying Zhang, Yuwen Li, Yi Lin, Wenhui Liang et al.
Applied Sciences
Energy Load and Power Forecasting
article

Multi-Step Wind Power Forecasting via CEEMDAN-Based Adaptive EWT and Frequency-Aligned GRU

Ying Zhang, Yuwen Li, Yi Lin, Wenhui Liang, Yifei Chen, Xuanbin Lin, Jingliang Chen
article en

Abstract

Accurate multi-step wind power forecasting is important for power-system scheduling and renewable energy integration, yet the strong nonstationarity and multi-scale structure of wind power remain challenging. This study evaluates a CEEMDAN-based empirical wavelet transform (EWT) and frequency-aligned gated recurrent unit (GRU) framework for direct six-step forecasting. Each monthly series is first partitioned chronologically into training, validation, and test sets at a 7:1:2 ratio; CEEMDAN and EWT are then applied independently within the fixed partitions used for comparative evaluation. The decomposition atoms are aggregated into fixed physical frequency bands, providing a common representation across partitions. The validation set selects the EWT band subset used to denoise the leading high-frequency representation, and independent single-channel GRUs with temporal attention forecast the retained frequency-aligned components. Component forecasts are summed and constrained to the physical operating range. On twelve monthly subsets of the T1 SCADA dataset, the block-wise framework achieves equal-month averages of 3.9846% NMAE, 236.8220 kW RMSE, and 143.4440 kW MAE, outperforming a persistence baseline and seven trained benchmarks. The paired one-sided Wilcoxon tests show significant improvements over both CEEMDAN-GRU and CEEMDAN-EWT-LSTM for all three metrics. A strict origin-wise implementation, AdaptiveEWT+SDG, recomputes features only from the history available at each forecast origin. Across six initializations, it achieves 6.0050% NMAE, 376.2803 kW mean-horizon RMSE, and 216.1808 kW MAE, versus 6.0149%, 376.9031 kW, and 216.5353 kW for Persistence, confirming the adaptive-frequency principle under strictly sequential information.

Applied SciencesVol. 16(19)
Hong Kong Polytechnic University (HK), Wuhan University of Technology (CN), Second Hospital of Yichang (CN), Hubei University of Technology (CN), Wuhan Institute of Technology (CN)
Openalex Percentile: Top 22%
Energy Load and Power Forecasting
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