Executive Selection Has a Criterion Problem: A Perspective on Capability‐Centered Assessment Under Strategic Uncertainty

ABSTRACT Executive selection often relies on distal proxies such as personality, career history, and reputation cues, despite their limited correspondence to future role demands․ This perspective article argues that the central validity problem in executive selection is criterion specification rather than predictor optimization․ It reframes assessment as a process of analyzing the organization's current strategic and cultural context, anticipating future role demands, and translating those demands into a weighted executive capability profile․ Personality, career history, reputation cues, and interviews are therefore treated as potentially useful but criterion‐dependent evidence rather than substitutes for criterion definition․ The article proposes a provisional framework for defining executive‐selection criteria and outlines implications for construct congruence, behavioral evidence, and future validation across strategic settings․