Persistent Negative Lag-One Dependence in Locally Detrended Prime-Gap Windows up to N = 10^9, with Absence of Significant Positive Autocorrelation up to K = 1024

We study the autocorrelation of consecutive prime gaps g_n = p_n+1 - p_n using an exact segmented sieve up to N = 10^9, yielding 50,847,532 even gaps (excluding the initial odd gap g_1 = 3 - 2 = 1). We show that the lag-one autocorrelation ρ_1 of the locally detrended gap sequence is negative in every one of ten logarithmic windows spanning [10^4, 10^9), with moving-block bootstrap 95% confidence intervals excluding zero in every window. The magnitude decays approximately monotonically from ρ_1 ≈ -0.095 in the smallest window to ρ_1 ≈ -0.031 in the largest, consistent with a power law |ρ_1| ∼ (log p)^-c. A weighted fit on the 8-window subset (log p ≥ 12) gives a point estimate c = 1.28 ± 0.05 (statistical) with bootstrap 95% CI [1.14, 1.57]; varying the window set produces estimates in [1.26, 1.57], indicating systematic sensitivity to the choice of subset. The quadratic decay (c = 2) is excluded in every window-set choice tested, at 3.7σ to 14.4σ, and at 6.6σ on the bootstrap scale. The naive logarithmic decay (c = 1) is excluded at 5.6σ using the weighted-fit standard error, but only at ≈ 2.5σ on the bootstrap scale of that same fit (SE_boot ≈ 0.11), at 2.6σ under the unweighted 8-window fit, 4.1–4.3σ under the two 6-window fits, and 4.9σ under the all-10-window fit: the exclusion holds for every window set we tested, but with a margin ranging from marginal (≈ 2.5σ) to clear (5.6σ), and should be read as suggestive rather than decisive. Extending the analysis to K = 1024 lags on the globally detrended sequence δ_n = g_n - log p_n, we find no significant positive autocorrelation at any individual lag: only 255 of 1024 lags are positive (24.9%), the largest positive value is +3.86 × 10^-4, below the Bonferroni threshold of 5.70 × 10^-4 by a factor of 0.68. A companion analysis of the raw (non-detrended) global autocorrelation reveals a non-stationarity artifact that produces 1016 of 1024 positive lags, with maximum value +4.24 × 10^-3 exceeding the threshold by a factor of 7.45; this artifact disappears entirely upon detrending. We also report a direct test of the Lemke Oliver–Soundararajan (LO-S) conjecture mod 3: the "stay" probability P(p_n+1 ≡ a | p_n ≡ a) for a ∈ {1, 2} is 0.44509 and 0.44514 respectively, deviating from 1/2 by approximately -0.055 at a z-score of approximately -553σ. The suppression is the same in both residue classes (the difference corresponds to z = 0.33), but the corresponding conditional autocorrelations differ between a = 1 and a = 2 by 3.6–4.5 standard errors at k = 1, 2, 3; the symmetry is therefore approximate. This is the strongest signal in the paper, and it confirms the LO-S bias for mod 3; a quantitative test of the conjectured per-class constants is left open. Within the largest window, the lag-k autocorrelations satisfy ρ_k ≈ ρ_1/k for k ≤ 5 to within 8%; the ratio remains approximately monotone at higher lags but with increasing deviation. An inclusion–exclusion extension of the naive Hardy–Littlewood pair-density heuristic reproduces the observed pair ratios to within 0.37% mean absolute error — a nearly tenfold (9.6×) improvement — without any fitted constants. As a byproduct of the analysis, the telescoping identity for δ_n yields ψ(10^9) - 10^9 = +1,595.99, consistent with the explicit bounds of Büthe. Code, data and a READMEhttps://github.com/reddoma742/prime-gaps-autocorrelation LicenceCC BY-NC-SA 4.0, the same licence as the code and data repository. Commercial use is not permitted, and derivatives must carry the same licence. Copyright covers the code, data, figures and text; it does not cover the ideas or the numerical results reported here. PriorityDeposited on 2 October 2026 to establish a public priority date. An arXiv preprint is intended but pending endorsement.

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-10-05
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23162269
Primary Topic
Analytic Number Theory Research
Type
preprint
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
preprint

Persistent Negative Lag-One Dependence in Locally Detrended Prime-Gap Windows up to N = 10^9, with Absence of Significant Positive Autocorrelation up to K = 1024

Reddouane BERRAMDANE
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Analytic Number Theory Research
preprint

Persistent Negative Lag-One Dependence in Locally Detrended Prime-Gap Windows up to N = 10^9, with Absence of Significant Positive Autocorrelation up to K = 1024

Reddouane BERRAMDANE
preprint en

Abstract

We study the autocorrelation of consecutive prime gaps g_n = p_n+1 - p_n using an exact segmented sieve up to N = 10^9, yielding 50,847,532 even gaps (excluding the initial odd gap g_1 = 3 - 2 = 1). We show that the lag-one autocorrelation ρ_1 of the locally detrended gap sequence is negative in every one of ten logarithmic windows spanning [10^4, 10^9), with moving-block bootstrap 95% confidence intervals excluding zero in every window. The magnitude decays approximately monotonically from ρ_1 ≈ -0.095 in the smallest window to ρ_1 ≈ -0.031 in the largest, consistent with a power law |ρ_1| ∼ (log p)^-c. A weighted fit on the 8-window subset (log p ≥ 12) gives a point estimate c = 1.28 ± 0.05 (statistical) with bootstrap 95% CI [1.14, 1.57]; varying the window set produces estimates in [1.26, 1.57], indicating systematic sensitivity to the choice of subset. The quadratic decay (c = 2) is excluded in every window-set choice tested, at 3.7σ to 14.4σ, and at 6.6σ on the bootstrap scale. The naive logarithmic decay (c = 1) is excluded at 5.6σ using the weighted-fit standard error, but only at ≈ 2.5σ on the bootstrap scale of that same fit (SE_boot ≈ 0.11), at 2.6σ under the unweighted 8-window fit, 4.1–4.3σ under the two 6-window fits, and 4.9σ under the all-10-window fit: the exclusion holds for every window set we tested, but with a margin ranging from marginal (≈ 2.5σ) to clear (5.6σ), and should be read as suggestive rather than decisive. Extending the analysis to K = 1024 lags on the globally detrended sequence δ_n = g_n - log p_n, we find no significant positive autocorrelation at any individual lag: only 255 of 1024 lags are positive (24.9%), the largest positive value is +3.86 × 10^-4, below the Bonferroni threshold of 5.70 × 10^-4 by a factor of 0.68. A companion analysis of the raw (non-detrended) global autocorrelation reveals a non-stationarity artifact that produces 1016 of 1024 positive lags, with maximum value +4.24 × 10^-3 exceeding the threshold by a factor of 7.45; this artifact disappears entirely upon detrending. We also report a direct test of the Lemke Oliver–Soundararajan (LO-S) conjecture mod 3: the "stay" probability P(p_n+1 ≡ a | p_n ≡ a) for a ∈ {1, 2} is 0.44509 and 0.44514 respectively, deviating from 1/2 by approximately -0.055 at a z-score of approximately -553σ. The suppression is the same in both residue classes (the difference corresponds to z = 0.33), but the corresponding conditional autocorrelations differ between a = 1 and a = 2 by 3.6–4.5 standard errors at k = 1, 2, 3; the symmetry is therefore approximate. This is the strongest signal in the paper, and it confirms the LO-S bias for mod 3; a quantitative test of the conjectured per-class constants is left open. Within the largest window, the lag-k autocorrelations satisfy ρ_k ≈ ρ_1/k for k ≤ 5 to within 8%; the ratio remains approximately monotone at higher lags but with increasing deviation. An inclusion–exclusion extension of the naive Hardy–Littlewood pair-density heuristic reproduces the observed pair ratios to within 0.37% mean absolute error — a nearly tenfold (9.6×) improvement — without any fitted constants. As a byproduct of the analysis, the telescoping identity for δ_n yields ψ(10^9) - 10^9 = +1,595.99, consistent with the explicit bounds of Büthe. Code, data and a READMEhttps://github.com/reddoma742/prime-gaps-autocorrelation LicenceCC BY-NC-SA 4.0, the same licence as the code and data repository. Commercial use is not permitted, and derivatives must carry the same licence. Copyright covers the code, data, figures and text; it does not cover the ideas or the numerical results reported here. PriorityDeposited on 2 October 2026 to establish a public priority date. An arXiv preprint is intended but pending endorsement.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Analytic Number Theory Research
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.