The Impact of Carbon Tariffs on the Division of Labor in Global Value Chains

In global climate governance, the implementation of unilateral carbon border adjustment mechanisms is impacting the international trading system. Existing research has largely focused on the macro-level trade and emissions reduction effects of carbon tariffs, with few studies systematically examining their dynamic impacts on the division of labor, positioning, and resilience of global value chains along production networks. This study employs a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model, combined with a trade value-added decomposition method, to construct four scenarios and quantitatively examine the heterogeneous impacts of carbon tariffs on the division of labor within global value chains. The results indicate: First, carbon tariffs alter relative prices in international markets, causing welfare and economic gains to shift overall from developing economies to policy-implementing and other developed economies. Second, tariff barriers trigger trade diversion and domestic substitution effects, driving regionalization in the flow of intermediate goods trade and inhibiting value-added creation in developing economies. Third, the degree of value chain participation and division of labor positions across economies diverge: forward participation increases in policy-implementing economies, while basic manufacturing economies such as China face the dual challenges of pressure on forward participation and a decline in their relative position. Fourth, external constraints drive certain segments of the transnational division of labor to converge inward. Combined with the rising concentration of foreign value-added sources and increased deviation in production length, this weakens the overall risk resilience of global value chains. This study provides a quantitative basis for assessing the trade spillover effects of climate policies and the evolution of global production networks.