Supersonic sustainability transitions: an integrated life cycle and triple bottom line assessment with socio-technical transition lenses for next-generation passenger aircraft

Purpose This study aims to evaluate the environmental, economic and social sustainability of next-generation commercial supersonic transport and develops the Supersonic Sustainability Transition Assessment Model (SSTAM) to distinguish near-term actionable pathways from options dependent on wider socio-technical readiness. Design/methodology/approach SSTAM integrates ISO 14040/44-aligned life-cycle assessment, triple bottom line indicators, multi-criteria decision analysis, scenario and Monte Carlo uncertainty testing and socio-technical systems/multi-level perspective interpretation. Reference, best-case and worst-case scenarios were modelled using regulatory, NASA/OEM, life-cycle inventory and peer-reviewed evidence. Findings Supersonic aircraft show CO2 emissions about 2.3–2.6 times higher than subsonic benchmarks, with additional high-altitude non-CO2 effects. Passenger-normalized unit operating cost ranges from US$0.118 to 0.190/RPK against unit revenue of US$0.150–0.170/RPK, producing positive margins only in the reference and best-case scenarios. Energy intensity reduction, verified low-carbon SAF uptake and noise/contrail-aware operations emerge as no-regrets pathways; liquid hydrogen propulsion and overland low-boom permissions remain conditional on infrastructure, policy, certification, market and community safeguards. Originality/value SSTAM moves beyond parallel sustainability frameworks by linking environmental performance, economic feasibility, social-equity outcomes, uncertainty robustness and socio-technical readiness through explicit pathway-classification rules for sustainable supersonic aviation.