Impacts of Digital Financial Inclusion on Carbon Emissions from a Spatial Econometric Perspective: A Case Study of Guangdong Province

This study estimates spatial Durbin models to examine the relationship between digital financial inclusion and carbon emissions across 21 cities in Guangdong Province from 2011 to 2020. Using four alternative spatial weight matrices, the analysis evaluates spatial dependence, decomposes direct, indirect, and total effects, and examines potential endogeneity, heterogeneity, mediation mechanisms, nonlinear patterns, and robustness. The results consistently indicate a negative association between digital financial inclusion and city-level carbon emissions, although the magnitude and statistical significance of spillover effects vary across spatial specifications. The evidence further suggests that usage depth is more closely related to emissions reduction than coverage breadth or digitalization. These findings provide city-level evidence for understanding how digital financial services may interact with low-carbon development in a spatially connected regional economy.