The Impact of Perceived Government Incentive Policies on the Fertility Intentions of Working Women: The Mediating Role of Work–Family Conflict in Shantou, Guangdong Province, China

This study examines how working women’s perceptions of government fertility incentive policies influence their fertility intentions in Shantou, Guangdong Province, China, with particular emphasis on the mediating role of work–family conflict. Employing a quantitative cross-sectional survey, 350 questionnaires were distributed, and 300 valid responses from employed women aged 20–49 were analysed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM). The results reveal that positive perceptions of government policies significantly increase fertility intentions both directly and indirectly by reducing work–family conflict. Work–family conflict itself negatively affects fertility intentions, serving as a key mechanism through which policy perceptions translate into reproductive decisions. These findings underscore the importance of not only government policy presence but also women’s subjective appraisal of policy accessibility and utility in shaping fertility-related decisions. The study suggests that policymakers should focus on enhancing the practical support government policies provide to working women, particularly by mitigating work–family tensions, to effectively encourage fertility intentions. This integrated approach offers valuable insights for fertility support strategies in contemporary urban China.