Experts’ Perspectives on the Role of Social Media in Shaping the Future of Political Participation in Iran: A Qualitative Futures Study

This study aimed to explore experts’ perspectives on the role of social media in shaping the future of political participation in Iran. This applied qualitative study employed a futures-oriented design based on in-depth semi-structured interviews with experts in communication sciences, political science, digital media, cyberspace governance, and political participation. Participants were selected through purposive sampling, supplemented where necessary by snowball sampling, and interviews continued until informational saturation was achieved. The interview guide addressed the capacities of social media for political engagement, manifestations of online participation, governmental roles, platform effects, news restrictions, political discourse, elite formation, and the relationship between online and offline participation. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analyzed using interpretive thematic analysis. Open coding, constant comparison, category development, and higher-order theme construction were used to identify patterns, differences, uncertainties, and future-oriented relationships among the extracted concepts. The findings indicated that social media is likely to become an increasingly central infrastructure for political participation in Iran by expanding political awareness, bottom-up communication, public-opinion formation, networked mobilization, and indirect influence on governmental decisions. However, its political effectiveness was found to depend on public trust, media literacy, freedom of expression, platform credibility, governmental responsiveness, and the conversion of online engagement into consequential political action. Experts distinguished genuine participation from symbolic, supportive, or performative participation and emphasized voluntariness, plurality, and autonomy as its defining conditions. Governmental involvement was interpreted as potentially facilitative when based on transparency, dialogue, and infrastructure provision, but restrictive when associated with filtering, surveillance, censorship, or channelization. Social media was also found to facilitate elite identification and collective action, although political influence, visibility, and popularity were not considered equivalent to political competence. Online and offline participation were interpreted as interconnected dimensions of a single political process. Social media can strengthen the future of political participation in Iran, but its constructive influence will depend on institutional recognition, communicative freedom, public trust, responsible governance, and meaningful pathways connecting digital expression to political decision-making.