Impacts of protected area conservation on local community livelihoods in Borena Saynt Werehimeno National Park, Ethiopia

Abstract Balancing biodiversity conservation and rural livelihoods remains a central challenge for protected area governance. This study provides quasi-experimental evidence on the livelihood impacts of community-based conservation adjacent to Borena Saynt Werehimeno National Park (BSWNP), Ethiopia. Using cross-sectional data from 440 households, we estimate an Endogenous Switching Regression model with a spatial proximity instrument to correct for self-selection bias. Corrected estimates reveal substantial welfare gains: participation increases annual household income by 32.8% and consumption expenditure by 23.7%. This divergence—consistent with the Livelihood Resilience framework and the Permanent Income Hypothesis—suggests that participants may allocate additional income toward long-term asset accumulation and debt repayment rather than immediate consumption. Participation is positively associated with off-farm income and age, but negatively associated with farmland ownership and high dependency ratios. Counterfactual analysis indicates that non-participants would experience a 3.7% short-term consumption decline if enrolled, highlighting liquidity constraints as a key participation barrier. Robustness checks using propensity score matching and two-stage least squares confirm these findings. The results contribute to challenging the traditional "parks versus people" narrative by demonstrating that protected area engagement can generate meaningful livelihood improvements within BSWNP's governance context. However, these outcomes are specific to BSWNP and may not be generalisable without considering local institutional and socio-economic conditions. To advance Sustainable Development Goals 1 and 15, conservation programmes should integrate transitional safety nets that buffer initial financial risks, thereby supporting equitable participation and long-term rural welfare.