Simulating Structural Change in Korean Churches

This technical note stems from the line of reasoning initiated in the process of addressing a simple question: why do people stop going to church? As the evidence accumulated, the question expanded to church switching, changes in church-size structure, Canaan Christians, pastoral supply, finance, external shocks, and recovery. We developed a simulation model that allows different movement paths among small (S), medium (M), and large (L) churches to be combined with changing external conditions. Rather than fixing one future value, the model compares outcomes under different conditions. The data, variables, and calculation procedures are presented so that readers can use the same model, simplify or extend it, or rebuild it with their own data.