Pengaruh PDRB Kehutanan, Kepadatan Penduduk, dan Luas Lahan Sawit terhadap Deforestasi di Pulau Sumatera

The expansion of economic activities, population pressure, and land-use change has contributed to persistent deforestation in Sumatra. Using balanced panel data from ten provinces in Sumatra over the 2019–2024 period, this research examines the relationship between forestry and logging Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), population density, oil palm plantation area, and deforestation. Secondary data were obtained from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the Directorate General of Plantations, and Global Forest Watch. Panel data regression was employed, with the Fixed Effects Model selected based on the Chow and Hausman tests. The findings indicate that forestry and logging GRDP has a positive but statistically insignificant relationship with deforestation, suggesting that economic activity in the forestry sector does not independently explain variations in forest loss during the observation period. Population density has a positive and statistically significant effect, indicating that demographic pressure is associated with greater demand for land for settlements, infrastructure, and economic activities. Oil palm plantation area also has a positive and statistically significant effect, highlighting plantation expansion as an important factor associated with forest loss in Sumatra. Simultaneously, the three explanatory variables significantly affect deforestation, with an R-squared value of 0.9492. These findings underscore the importance of integrated land-use planning, sustainable population management, and stronger control over oil palm expansion to support sustainable forest management in Sumatra.