MODEL ADOPTION #3095: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.2% to 38.4% — E8 Intelligence Research

DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: No element survives — the "min confirmations >= 6" filter is a statistical artifact, not a geometric edge. E8-node/Gods-Clock rhythm logic already encodes timing; adding a confirmation count is redundant and likely regime-dependent. EXPECTED IMPACT: Win-rate gain (+7.2pp) is real in backtest but not causal — it merely removes early entries that fail in low-volatility chop. In trending or news-heavy periods, delayed entries will miss the best price, cutting R:R and net profit. The 71.4% window result is cherry-picked (n=7) and not reproducible. RISK: Filter systematically excludes high-volatility breakouts that occasionally produce outsized winners (tail risk). Over 3–6 months, frequency drops ~25%, but average R:R shrinks — net PnL likely flat or negative. Overfits to 2026 summer low-vol regime; will degrade in live trending markets. TEST: Must pass a 30-day shadow replay on all 10 instruments with ≥150 filtered and ≥150 skipped signals, requiring: (a) Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-10-03
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23115298
Primary Topic
Data Analysis with R
Type
preprint
Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
preprint

MODEL ADOPTION #3095: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.2% to 38.4% — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Data Analysis with R
preprint

MODEL ADOPTION #3095: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.2% to 38.4% — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: No element survives — the "min confirmations >= 6" filter is a statistical artifact, not a geometric edge. E8-node/Gods-Clock rhythm logic already encodes timing; adding a confirmation count is redundant and likely regime-dependent. EXPECTED IMPACT: Win-rate gain (+7.2pp) is real in backtest but not causal — it merely removes early entries that fail in low-volatility chop. In trending or news-heavy periods, delayed entries will miss the best price, cutting R:R and net profit. The 71.4% window result is cherry-picked (n=7) and not reproducible. RISK: Filter systematically excludes high-volatility breakouts that occasionally produce outsized winners (tail risk). Over 3–6 months, frequency drops ~25%, but average R:R shrinks — net PnL likely flat or negative. Overfits to 2026 summer low-vol regime; will degrade in live trending markets. TEST: Must pass a 30-day shadow replay on all 10 instruments with ≥150 filtered and ≥150 skipped signals, requiring: (a) Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Data Analysis with R
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.

MODEL ADOPTION #3095: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.2% to 38.4% — E8 Intelligence Research — Andrew Stewart Caldin · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS