Determinants of the ideal and actual number of children among married women: Evidence from a poisson regression model

This study investigates the determinants of fertility levels and preferences among married women aged 15-49 in Türkiye, based on socioeconomic, demographic, and certain subjective assessments. For this purpose, a questionnaire was administered to 439 married women, and the determinants of the actual number of children and the ideal number of children were examined using a Poisson regression model. In all the models constructed within the scope of the study, the association between the ideal number of children and the actual number of children was found to be positive and statistically significant. According to the findings, higher educational attainment is associated with a lower actual number of children, while household income is associated with lower actual and ideal numbers of children; occupational concern and the perception of uncertainty regarding the future are negatively associated with the ideal number of children, whereas the associations of family and spousal expectations with the actual number of children were not statistically significant. In addition, it was found spousal expectation is associated with women’s preferences regarding the ideal number of children, whereas no statistically significant association was found with the actual number of children. Chronic illness status is also significant in all models, and this result is important because it demonstrates a negative association between chronic health problems and the actual number of children. Another notable result of the study is the significant association between household income and the actual number of children.