LAB #3170 HARMFUL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: ETHUSD SHORT @ NY_OPEN with 6 conf — improves win rate from 31.4% to 80. — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: ETHUSD SHORT @ NY_OPEN with 6 conf — improves win rate from 31.4% to 80.0% (+48.6pp, n=5) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the current 10-trade window, this filter would have eliminated all non-ETHUSD trades (8 of 10), leaving only the two XAUUSD trades (which are not ETHUSD) — so effectively zero trades would have passed. The claimed 80% win rate is based on n=5, which is statistically meaningless; applying it here would have produced no trades, thus no PnL change but also no evidence of improvement. The filter is so narrow it would have starved the live book during this window, reducing activity by ~80% while offering no measurable edge. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, this filter would likely cut trade frequency by 70–90% (ETHUSD SHORT at NY_OPEN with 6 conf is a rare setup). With such a small sample, the 80% win rate is almost certainly regression to the mean — the true win rate is likely near th Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com