THE TRANSITION FROM SOMALIA'S 4.5 SYSTEM: EXPECTATIONS AND REALITY

Purpose of Study: This study examines Somalia’s transition from the clan-based 4.5 power-sharing system toward a citizenship-based democratic governance framework. It investigates the gap between democratization expectations and implementation realities, focusing on elite capture, informal power structures, federal-state fragmentation, and the marginalization of women, youth, and minority communities in political decision-making processes. Methodology: The study employs a qualitative desktop research design, drawing on official government policy documents, constitutional frameworks, peer-reviewed journal articles, international agency reports, and relevant media publications. Data were analyzed thematically using deductive and inductive coding to identify recurring patterns, institutional challenges, reform inconsistencies, and structural barriers affecting Somalia’s political transition and democratic transformation. Findings: The findings reveal that Somalia’s transition from the 4.5 system remains incomplete despite repeated commitments to universal suffrage and democratic governance. Elite capture, entrenched clan-based interests, informal power structures, and federal-state disagreements continue to obstruct substantive political reforms. Women, youth, and minority communities remain underrepresented, while formal inclusion commitments frequently lack effective enforcement mechanisms. The adoption of electoral laws and gender quotas has not consistently translated into meaningful political participation. Furthermore, persistent reliance on indirect elections demonstrates the continued influence of clan-based political arrangements. The study also identifies a symbolic politics trap, whereby institutional reforms are formally adopted without sufficiently transforming existing power relations, limiting progress toward inclusive, accountable, and representative governance. Conclusion: Somalia’s transition requires more than formal electoral and constitutional reforms. Sustainable democratic transformation depends on addressing the political structures and incentives that reproduce clan-based power-sharing. A sequenced approach emphasizing enforceable inclusion mechanisms, stronger electoral institutions, civic participation, federal consensus, security, and engagement with informal authorities can provide a more credible pathway toward inclusive, citizenship-based governance.