Afetos negativos da Usina Hidrelétrica de Estreito - Maranhão (UHE-MA) no crescimento populacional dos munícipios impactados

The Estreito Hydroelectric Plant – Maranhão (UHE-MA) is a major energy project situated on the Tocantins River. Operational since 2011 and managed by the Estreito Energia Consortium (CESTE), the plant directly impacts 12 municipalities across the states of Tocantins and Maranhão, generating significant social, environmental, and demographic repercussions. This article aims to analyze the negative impacts of the UHE-MA on population dynamics, specifically highlighting the observed decline and aging of the population linked to processes of expropriation and forced displacement. The construction and operation of the UHE-MA have demonstrably altered the demographic structure and living conditions of the affected communities. To investigate these phenomena, we incorporate a qualitative and quantitative analysis of demographic data spanning from 2010 to 2025. The study is theoretically grounded in three key frameworks: the Theory of Affections, particularly the contributions of Spinoza (2024) and Deleuze (2002), which serves to interpret the emotional and existential effects of expropriation; the Demographic Transition Theory, used to understand the observed changes in the age structure; and Marx’s Population Theory, which relates these shifts to the inherent contradictions of the capitalist mode of production. Methodologically, the research utilizes official data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE, 2025) and the System of Recovery and Dissemination of Statistical Data (Sidras, 2025). This data is organized through descriptive statistics and represented geospatially using QGIS software, focusing specifically on the 12 directly impacted municipalities. The results indicate a significant population decline, most notably in the municipality of Babaçulândia, which experienced a 24.4% reduction between 2010 and 2022, accompanied by marked demographic aging. The article concludes that the impacts of the UHE-MA extend beyond economic dimensions, producing negative affections that diminish the power to act (potentia agendi) and the very existence of the affected individuals and communities.