Economic isolation and strategic loneliness: how prolonged sanctions reshape Iran’s foreign policy choices

Why do some sanctioned states continue to follow rigid foreign policy alignments even when those choices bring serious economic and strategic costs? This article argues that prolonged sanctions affect foreign policy not only by creating immediate pressure, but also by gradually narrowing the strategic environment in which targeted states operate. It introduces the concept of strategic loneliness to describe a condition in which sustained exclusion reduces available partners, concentrates external relationships, deepens asymmetric dependence and makes policy adjustment more difficult over time. Using Iran as a qualitative single-case study and drawing on process tracing and within-case analysis, the article examines how long-term US and multilateral sanctions have shaped Iran’s external options. It evaluates this argument through evidence on partner scarcity, financial exclusion, oil-export concentration, the limited reopening during The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) period and the renewed narrowing of Iran’s choices after 2018. The article does not argue that ideology, regime survival and regional rivalry are unimportant. Rather, it shows that these explanations are incomplete without attention to the structural effects of sanctions. By linking sanctions research with international political economy and alignment theory, the article shows how prolonged exclusion can turn strategic choice into constrained adaptation.