The Future of Maritime Diplomacy

This working paper develops provisional foundations for a theory of maritime diplomacy under institutional asymmetry. It asks how diplomacy connects international commitments with effective conduct when authority, knowledge and capabilities are distributed unequally. The analysis distinguishes agreement, implementation, compliance, effectiveness and legitimacy as outcomes requiring separate assessment. The paper proposes an explanatory mechanism linking negotiation, authorisation, mobilisation of necessary contributions and review. Institutional asymmetry is examined through differences in legal competence, expertise, resources, procedures and continuity. These differences may obstruct cooperation or support complementary roles, depending on dependence, available alternatives and governing arrangements. The argument engages with institutional, polycentric and relational scholarship while reserving claims of originality for fuller comparison and empirical testing. Political willingness is distinguished from capacity, recognising that adequate institutions cannot guarantee cooperation where governments deliberately resist performance. The paper outlines comparative research and process tracing to examine decisions, test alternative explanations and identify scope conditions. It also considers practical implications for diplomatic preparation, assistance, coordination and accountability. Its contribution is a research framework for an original academic book. The proposed theory remains conditional, requiring documented cases, stronger scholarly engagement and contrary evidence before conclusions concerning new maritime diplomacy can be established with sufficient academic confidence.