Tax pressure and governance in a spatially interdependent world: international evidence and Morocco's positioning

This paper examines relationships between governance and tax pressure across 118 countries using country-level averages for 2000–2023. Combining Moran’s I, an economic-proximity matrix, and cross-sectional regressions, it identifies significant positive clustering in both variables, stronger for taxation. Governance is positively and significantly associated with tax pressure in baseline and spatially augmented specifications. The spatial term absorbs residual dependence, while Morocco records tax pressure above its baseline-predicted level without being an outlier. The findings highlight institutional quality and economic interdependence as correlates of fiscal capacity, while avoiding causal interpretations, and support equitable tax-base development in emerging economies.