LAB #2919 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 31.1% to 31.8% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = MANIPULATION — improves win rate from 31.1% to 31.8% (+0.7pp, n=1105) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the MANIPULATION-phase filter would have blocked the 2026-08-04 XAUUSD SHORT (loss) and the 2026-08-03 GBPUSD SHORT (loss), but also the 2026-08-04 AUDUSD LONG (win) and the 2026-08-04 USDCAD SHORT (win). Net effect on the 10-trade window: 2 losses removed, 2 wins removed — win rate unchanged (5/8 = 62.5% vs 5/10 = 50%? Actually 5 wins/10 = 50%, 3 wins/6 = 50% — no change). PnL delta is roughly flat, possibly slightly negative if the removed wins had larger R multiples than the removed losses. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: The +0.7pp edge is marginal and likely within noise for n=1105. Over 3–6 months, the filter may reduce trade frequency by ~15–20%, and if the edge is real, it could add ~2–4pp to win rate but also increase variance due to fewer samples. Key risk: the "MANIPULATION" phase la Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com