Sustainability Of Biomass Power Investments In Turkey: Techno-Economic Analysis And Policy Optimization Proposals

Biomass energy plays a multi-dimensional role in Turkey's energy transition strategies due to its high availability rate, baseload generation capability, and contribution to agricultural-forestry waste management. This study aims to analyze the long-term economic sustainability and system efficiency of biomass power plants from a technical perspective within the framework of current market dynamics and legislation.In this context, a comprehensive Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) modeling was conducted using operational data from the 27 MW Eber Biomass Power Plant in Afyonkarahisar, which utilizes direct combustion technology. Analyzes under different biomass fuel mixtures and logistics cost scenarios show that unit production costs can be optimized within the range of $0.105/kWh to $0.109/kWh. The findings highlight the importance of aligning current support mechanisms (approximately 0,066- $0.07/kWh) with the technical sustainability and technological renewal capacities of the plants, based on 2025-2026 projections.The research includes a comparative analysis of biomass with intermittent resources such as wind and solar, discussing the integration of the added value it provides to system balancing into economic models. In the conclusion, to ensure the sector reaches its full potential and maintains a sustainable investment climate, structural recommendations are proposed, such as easing the requirements for capacity mechanism participation, hybrid system and energy storage integration, and dynamic pricing models reflecting actual production costs. The proposed solutions are of critical importance in enhancing the contribution of the biomass ecosystem to Turkey's 2053 net-zero emission vision.