Russia–Ukraine War, the Weaponisation of Energy, and Türkiye’s Ambition to Become an Energy Hub

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 triggered the most severe energy shock in Europe since the 1973 OAPEC oil embargo. Moscow’s weaponization of energy has clearly demonstrated that the European Union’s long-term dependence on Russian hydrocarbons constitutes a critical strategic vulnerability. This study examines how the Russia–Ukraine War has affected Türkiye’s ambition to become a regional energy hub and assesses the conditions required for this ambition to evolve from a temporary window of opportunity into a durable strategic reality. Bringing together three strands of literature—energy weaponization, Türkiye’s geostrategic role, and European energy security—within an integrated theoretical framework, the study explores the gap between Türkiye’s existing transit functions and its aspirations to become an energy hub in the post-2022 period. It analyses energy geopolitics and energy security through the lenses of Keohane and Nye’s theory of complex interdependence and the conceptualization of energy as a tool of coercion. The study argues that the war has intensified European demand for alternative energy routes, paving the way for new bilateral agreements with European actors and enhancing Türkiye’s geostrategic significance. In this context, it highlights that conditions since 2022 have strengthened Türkiye’s potential to develop into an energy hub. Nevertheless, structural constraints—including a highly concentrated energy market in which BOTAŞ remains dominant; limited domestic energy production; supplier-related risks; insufficient market liberalization; and regional geopolitical volatility—suggest that Türkiye remains primarily a major energy transit country rather than a fully fledged energy hub.