Analysis of the success and failure aspects of cross-border renewable energy powered water desalination plants in conflict zones

Cross-border renewable energy powered desalination offers a potential response to water scarcity in conflict-affected regions, but its implementation is constrained by interconnected technical, political, institutional, environmental, financial, and social challenges. This study identifies and prioritizes the critical success factors affecting such projects using the Analytic Hierarchy Process. A multidimensional framework comprising seven main dimensions and 58 sub-criteria was evaluated through structured expert judgments. The results show a balanced distribution among the seven main dimensions, with weights ranging from 0.136 for social and community aspects to 0.146 for environmental and ecological aspects, indicating that no single dimension independently determines project success. At the sub-criterion level, the five highest global weights were obtained for the reliability and efficiency of desalination technology (0.0221), the use of renewable energy to reduce carbon emissions (0.0210), technical compatibility between participating countries’ infrastructure (0.0207), perceived fairness in benefit allocation (0.0203), and clarity of legal frameworks (0.0203). Under a +20% perturbation of each main-criterion weight, 5–7 of the original top ten sub-criteria remained in the top ten, demonstrating reasonable ranking stability. The findings indicate that successful cross-border desalination requires an integrated socio-technical approach combining operational reliability, environmental sustainability, compatible infrastructure, legal clarity, and equitable cooperation.