Land use and land cover change in the Okavango Delta, Botswana: integrating remote sensing and community perspectives on change drivers

Land use and land cover change is a complex process triggered by either natural or anthropogenic factors. It has important implications for socioeconomic development and environmental sustainability. The present study assessed the dynamics of LULC in Shakawe and Gumare villages of northern Botswana from 1990 to 2023. The study also analysed stakeholders’ perceptions regarding the causes of LULC transformations. The drivers and patterns of land use and land cover change (LULCC) were identified by adopting satellite imagery analysis and a survey approach. The study employed supervised digital image classification and change detection techniques in combination with structured surveys to capture stakeholders’ perceptions. The results show urbanisation and agriculture are the dominant drivers of LULCC, leading to notable alterations in built-up areas, vegetation cover, and infrastructure development. The growth of population and economic activities play a role in shaping LULC dynamics in the study area. Findings also show that the built-up areas in Shakawe increased from 0.97 km2 to 2.02 km2 and from 0.26 km2 to 1.30 km2 in Gumare. Barren land was reduced from 10.9 km2 in 1990 to 4.02 km2 in 2023, and shrubs and trees decreased from 20.53 km2 in 1990 to 16.21 km2 in 2023. A Kruskal–Wallis test revealed a statistically significant difference (X2 = 28.4; p < 0.001) in the way people from different ethnic groups perceived factors influencing LULC. The results highlight the interplay between environmental change and human activities, necessitating sustainable land management practices and highly informed decision-making. The research further highlights the importance of local-level analysis of how LULC patterns and change drivers are understood, particularly in regions experiencing high population growth and resource utilisation. By presenting temporal and spatial patterns of LULC, this research paper contributes to the broader knowledge of land use change processes and policy development aimed at environmental resilience and community well-being.