Green Transition and ESG Support Interventions for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises: Developing a Logic Model and Evaluating Experimental Impacts in Vietnam

ABSTRACT: The purpose of the paper is to develop a logic model for an intervention integrating the green-transition and ESG support of SMEs in Vietnam and show how its impact could be measured by using a quasi-experimental design. The intervention includes ESG diagnostics, capacity building training, green-transition diagnostics, individualized action planning, and mentoring in implementation. In the logic model, the chain of cause-and-effect relationships goes from inputs/activities to immediate outputs, ESG knowledge/organizational capability improvement, ESG readiness, the adoption of environmental, social, and governance practices and their performance impacts. In order to illustrate the evaluation approach, we created a synthetic panel dataset including 160 SMEs consisting of 80 intervention firms and 80 matched comparison firms observed at baseline, after the intervention and during follow-up periods. Using difference-in-differences analysis of baseline and post-intervention observations, the estimated simulated effects of intervention on ESG knowledge were found to be 1.038 points; on ESG readiness, 0.730; on environmental practices, 0.616; on social practices, 0.468; and on governance practices, 0.601; all on five-point scales. The pattern is intentionally calibrated so that proximal capability outcomes respond more strongly than organizational practices, reflecting the time and resource requirements of implementation. The study contributes an evaluable intervention architecture for SME ESG support and illustrates how future field trials in Vietnam can combine causal impact estimation with process evidence. The findings are illustrative rather than empirical and are intended to guide a subsequent real-world pilot or randomized/quasi-experimental evaluation. Keywords: ESG; green transition; small and medium-sized enterprises; logic model; impact evaluation; difference-in-differences; Vietnam.