Climate variability, land-use change, and the development of dominant ecosystem services across China

Accelerating climate change and land use/land cover change (LUCC) heavily alter ecosystem service (ES) dynamics. This study proposes an integrated framework to identify Dominant Ecosystem Services (DES) based on the Comprehensive Ecosystem Service Value (CESV) method, addressing service overlap and management homogenization. Six representative services carbon storage (CS), water yield (WY), sediment delivery ratio (SDR), net primary productivity (NPP), nitrogen retention (NDR N), and phosphorus retention (NDR P) were quantitatively evaluated across China at a 1 km resolution during 1995–2025 using Z -score standardization and the Maximum Value Criterion (MVC). Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) decoupled the direct and indirect drivers of DES evolution. Results reveal a “southern-high and northern-low” spatial pattern with high regional heterogeneity. CS (36.12%) and SDR (22.08%) exhibit the highest ecological dominance. One-Way ANOVA validates a post-2015 structural shift to SDR dominance in Northwest China, driven by severe precipitation surges (234.8 mm; F = 42.15, p < 0.001) that overrode vegetation stabilization thresholds. PLS-SEM path coefficients show that direct climate impacts declined over time, whereas LUCC impacts rose progressively from 0.189 (1995) to 0.666 (2025). Concurrently, Two-Way ANOVA confirms that unified nationwide Z -scores introduce significant systemic bias across specific ecological zones ( F = 34.21, p < 0.001). WY, NDR N, and NDR-P exert the strongest indirect effects on DES formation. This diagnostic DES-CESV framework establishes a rigorous foundation for spatial zoning and environmental governance under future eco-climatic scenarios.