A Risk Assessment Framework for Circular Value Chains in the Chemical Industry

The transition to a circular economy in the chemical industry generates not only resource efficiency gains but also new economic and criminological risks. This article adopts an analytical framework to examine the circular value chain and the windows of criminological opportunities of its stages, in conjunction with associated economic risks. This article is positioned as a conceptual study based on theoretical analysis of the literature and analytical reasoning. The analytical tool employed was conceptual modelling of a circular value chain for a chemical enterprise, utilising Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN) 2.0, followed by the overlay of two distinct groups of markers onto the business process architecture: criminological windows and economic risks. The causal analysis yields findings indicating that economic risks (information asymmetry, transaction costs, quality uncertainty of secondary materials, and coordination failures) are closely intertwined with criminological risks arising from inadequate traceability, fragmented accountability, and regulatory gaps. These factors mutually reinforce one another and shape the behaviour of participants across the circular chain. This leads to the conclusion that economic and criminological risks in circular value chains ought to be analysed conjointly, as they are driven by shared institutional and behavioural determinants. For the chemical sector, effective circularity demands not only technological transformation but also risk-sensitive governance, enhanced traceability, and a clearer allocation of responsibility among actors.