Suitable Habitat Patterns and Migration Trends of Lantana camara in Southwestern China: An Invasion Risk Assessment Based on an MaxEnt Model with Feature-Class Optimization

Biological invasions driven by climate change and human activities pose a serious threat to biodiversity and ecosystem stability in global biodiversity hotspot regions. Lantana camara is a globally recognized aggressive invasive plant that has rapidly spread in southwest China and caused significant ecological risks. To clarify its potential geographic distribution, key driving factors, and future invasion dynamics under climate change, this study applied an MaxEnt model with feature-class optimization, integrating occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, topographic data, and the human footprint index to simulate habitat suitability in southwest China for the current period (1970–2000) and the future (2050s and 2070s) under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). The results show that the current high-suitability area for L. camara is 1.21 × 104 km2, mainly distributed in central Yunnan and the Chengdu Plain. Human activity (human footprint index, 52.3%) is the dominant driver, and the mean temperature of the coldest month (28.5%) is the primary natural limiting factor. Future suitable areas exhibit a remarkable scenario-dependent nonlinear response. By the 2070s, the high-suitability area expands most sharply under SSP2-4.5 (3.27 × 104 km2, an increase of about 170%), revealing that moderate warming facilitates northward expansion. Under SSP5-8.5, the high-suitability area contracts compared with the 2050s, indicating that extreme high temperatures restrain optimal habitats. Spatially, L. camara displays a “retreat south, advance north” pattern under high-emission scenarios, with its distribution centroid continuously shifting northeast, reflecting climate-driven niche changes. This study verifies that the invasion risk of L. camara does not rise linearly with climate warming. Moderate warming boosts its spread, whereas extreme warming reshapes its distribution, offering a scientific basis for risk assessment, early warning, and targeted control strategies against L. camara invasion in southwest China and worldwide.