Investigation of Optimal Flood Effects in case of the Failure of the Karaman Gödet Dam

This study investigates the potential flood impacts of a possible failure of the Gödet Dam located in Karaman, Türkiye. Floods resulting from sudden dam failures can spread rapidly, causing significant loss of life and property. In this research, the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) and the Firefly Algorithm (FA) were integrated to simulate the optimal dam-break scenario. A total of 60 cross-sections were measured downstream of the dam and used in the model. The new peak discharge formula developed by FA estimated the maximum breach discharge as 40,433 m³/s, with a coefficient of determination (R²=0.8721) and a root mean square error (RMSE=4281.5), which outperform existing formulas. The results have indicated that extensive areas, including residential and agricultural lands, are at high flood risk in the event of dam failure. The findings provide essential guidance for structural and non-structural mitigation measures to be implemented before flood events.