Does climate policy kill jobs? Assessing the gap between the measured and perceived job transition risk in Western Canada

Compulsory climate policies, including carbon taxes and regulations, have been framed in terms of threats to employment. The ‘job-killing’ narrative has been particularly strong in Canada, where economic concerns have been tied to the consumer carbon tax, leading to its elimination in April 2025. Using a representative web-based survey of communities with fossil fuel-dependent employment in Western Canada (n = 1665), our study aims to: (1) introduce and validate an empirical measure of the perceptions gap between perceived and measured job risk from climate policy, (2) identify the socio-economic, political, and regional determinants of the perceptions gap, and (3) assess how measured risk, perceived risk, and the perceptions gap are associated with support for specific climate policies. We find that perceived and measured job risk are positively correlated, but respondents systematically overestimate risk. Perceived job risk is highest in oil- and gas-producing Alberta, Saskatchewan, and northeastern British Columbia. Sectoral emissions intensity is the strongest predictor of perceived risk. The perceptions gap narrows with higher education and trust in scientists, but widens with income insecurity, right-leaning ideology, and especially engagement with climate delay discourses, which has the largest association. Both measured and perceived risk, and the gap between them, reduce support for most climate policies, particularly industry-focused policies. In contrast, perceived risk and the gap are not significantly associated with support for the fossil fuel consumption tax, suggesting industry policies are seen as more direct threats to employment. The study helps support climate-energy communication and decision-making.