Predictors of Retention, Organizational Turnover, and Occupational Turnover Intentions in Nonprofit Social Services

ABSTRACT Employee turnover in nonprofit social services is a complex process involving multiple trajectories. Moving beyond traditional unidimensional approaches, this study explores how various job‐related, organizational, personal, and external factors predict three distinct career intentions: retention intention (staying), organizational turnover intention (switching organizations within the sector), and occupational turnover intention (exiting the profession). Drawing on survey data from 914 social workers in South Korea, we applied Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) analysis to compare coefficient magnitudes across the three related outcomes. Our exploratory comparisons reveal that these intentions are shaped by distinct configurations of predictors. For example, burnout and job alternatives operated as stronger drivers of both turnover intentions compared to retention intention. Conversely, variables like community embeddedness and distributive justice primarily anchored employees to their current organizations without necessarily deterring organizational switching or professional exit. By disaggregating turnover into staying, switching, and exiting, this study offers nuanced insights and targeted human resource interventions for nonprofit organizations.