Employment implications of liquid biofuels production in Ukraine under the climate neutrality goal by 2055

This article analyzes the potential impact of liquid biofuel production on employment in Ukraine within the context of pursuing climate neutrality by 2050. Despite progress in renewable electricity, the transport sector lags significantly behind the EU RED II and RED III Directive targets. The study assesses installed capacities against the 2030 National Renewable Energy Action Plan (2030 NREAP), identifies feasible biofuel types for sustainability and neutrality, and estimates employment effects using the employment factors method, with input from the TIMES-Ukraine model scenarios (WEM, WAM, NZE). Results indicate first-generation bioethanol dominance to 2030, shifting toward second-generation biofuels like biokerosene post-2030; employment could reach up to 46,000 jobs by 2055 (WAM) or 72,000 by 2045 (NZE), predominantly in feedstock supply, though outcomes depend on policy implementation, model assumptions (e.g., no exports), and external factors like war recovery. These projections highlight the potential for rural development amid uncertainties in global biofuel markets and domestic regulation.