LAB #2883 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.1% to 37.7% (+6.6pp, — E8 Intelligence Research
IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 6 — improves win rate from 31.1% to 37.7% (+6.6pp, n=430) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a minimum-6-confirmation filter would have killed the two losing rizzy5m trades (GBPUSD 1.34508 and XAUUSD 4051.79) that entered with fewer confirmations, removing 2 losses from the 10-trade window. It would also have blocked the USDCHF SHORT that is currently open/rejected — a trade that is still unresolved and could go either way. Net effect on this window: win rate improves from 5/9 (55.6%) to 5/7 (71.4%) if we exclude the open trade, and PnL improves by roughly +2R (assuming each loss was ~1R). However, the filter would also have blocked the winning GBPUSD 1.34461 short if it entered with <6 confirmations — but the data shows it had enough, so no false kill there. The main risk is that you're cherry-picking a small sample; the +6.6pp claim is based on n=430, but this live window is only 10 Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Authors
- Andrew Stewart Caldin
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-09-30
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23052224
- Primary Topic
- Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
- Type
- preprint