Micron Before Earnings: A Testable Twelve-Month Memory Scarcity Thesis

This research note sets out a pre-earnings, twelve-month thesis on Micron Technology and the memory cycle, with a particular focus on high-bandwidth memory (HBM), server DRAM, wafer allocation, customer commitments, and the timing of new supply. It argues that current constraints in advanced memory may continue to support Micron's pricing and earnings through September 2027, while emphasizing that tight supply does not guarantee attractive equity returns or permanent scarcity. The note also examines the implications of HBM capacity intensity, Chinese DRAM progress, and the risk of future normalization. Version 1.0 was frozen before Micron's September 30, 2026 fiscal Q4 results and includes pre-specified financial and industrial tests for later review.