LAB #2891 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 31.1% to 35.8% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 31.1% to 35.8% (+4.7pp, n=452) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the phase-distance TIGHT (≤2°) filter to the current live window would have removed the two LOSS trades (XAUUSD SHORT 4048.74 and USDJPY SHORT 157.883) and likely the GBPUSD SHORT 1.34508 loss, as those entries show wider phase dispersion in the backtest cohort. That leaves 7 trades with 5 wins and 2 losses (the rejected USDCHF stays out), shifting the window win rate from 60% (6/10) to ~71% (5/7). PnL delta is positive but modest — removing losers saves roughly 2R, while the filter also removes one winner (AUDUSD LONG) if its phase distance was >2°, netting maybe +0.5R to +1.5R over this window. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a +4.7pp win-rate gain on n=452 suggests the filter is selecting for higher-conviction setups, but the sample is small and the gain may be concentrated in Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-30
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23052342
Primary Topic
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
Type
preprint
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LAB #2891 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 31.1% to 35.8% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
preprint

LAB #2891 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 31.1% to 35.8% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 31.1% to 35.8% (+4.7pp, n=452) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the phase-distance TIGHT (≤2°) filter to the current live window would have removed the two LOSS trades (XAUUSD SHORT 4048.74 and USDJPY SHORT 157.883) and likely the GBPUSD SHORT 1.34508 loss, as those entries show wider phase dispersion in the backtest cohort. That leaves 7 trades with 5 wins and 2 losses (the rejected USDCHF stays out), shifting the window win rate from 60% (6/10) to ~71% (5/7). PnL delta is positive but modest — removing losers saves roughly 2R, while the filter also removes one winner (AUDUSD LONG) if its phase distance was >2°, netting maybe +0.5R to +1.5R over this window. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a +4.7pp win-rate gain on n=452 suggests the filter is selecting for higher-conviction setups, but the sample is small and the gain may be concentrated in Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
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LAB #2891 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 31.1% to 35.8% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research — Andrew Stewart Caldin · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS