Assessing the conflict nexus of carbon emissions, NEV penetration rate and resource carrying capacity in regional transportation systems

Deep transport decarbonisation is fundamental to dual-carbon targets. Yet, the interplay among carbon emissions, new energy vehicle penetration rate, and regional resource carrying capacity has not been reported. Here, this study develops a three-dimensional analytical framework that integrates these elements to explore their internal conflicts. This approach is applied in an empirical study across 18 prefecture-level cities in Sichuan Province. Conflict intensity was quantified using the Jensen–Shannon divergence, while Bayesian model averaging was applied to identify the dominant drivers. We find that overall conflict intensity has declined across the region, following four distinct patterns. Chengdu follows the low conflict-persistent stability pattern, where the conflict index falls from 0.1864 in 2015 to near zero (0.000053). Suining follows the high-level abrupt decline pattern, where the index drops from a peak of 0.3520–0.1944. Bazhong follows the volatile rebound pattern, where the index first falls from 0.2214 to 0.0476 and then rises to 0.2143. Dazhou follows the moderate-steady decline pattern, with conflict intensity decreasing steadily year by year. The relationship between NEV penetration and conflict intensity is non-linear and characterised by a stage-dependent pattern. Highway passenger and freight volumes are the two most important correlates of conflict intensity, but their effects run in opposite directions. Our findings suggest that reducing regional transport systemic conflicts requires coordinated management of transport demand, rather than reliance on single-dimensional decarbonisation measures. This integrated perspective offers insights for sustainable regional transport policies balancing economic growth and emission mitigation.