Impact of Land Use Change on Sandstorm Disaster in Tarim Basin of China

Arid oasis–desert systems in inland basins are increasingly threatened by human-induced land-use transformation and aggravated dust storm hazards, whereas the nonlinear coupling mechanisms and critical land-use thresholds controlling dust pollution remain poorly understood. Taking township units of southern Xinjiang as the research scope over a 25-year period, this study integrated remote sensing and geographic information system techniques, geographically weighted regression, and piecewise threshold analysis to explore the long-term spatial coupling relationship between land-use transitions and dust-related PM10 variations, and to identify the threshold effects of diverse land-use types on dust emissions. The results indicate evident spatial non-stationarity in the co-variation patterns of land-use change and dust pollution. Intensive land-use disturbance and elevated dust risks are concentrated in oasis–desert ecotones, while desert hinterlands and high mountainous areas exhibit stable land-use conditions and weak human interference. Land-use factors exert limited explanatory capacity for dust variation due to dominant meteorological background controls. Distinct threshold effects exist among different land-use categories. Bare land and impervious surfaces function as dust-promoting land types with sharp increases in dust pollution beyond their respective critical proportions. Cropland exhibits a dual nonlinear effect, providing dust-suppression benefits within a reasonable proportion range but aggravating dust risks under excessive reclamation through the destruction of ecological buffer zones. Snow cover, forest, grassland, and water bodies serve as effective dust-suppressing land types, whose mitigation benefits stabilize after reaching minimum critical coverage, while shrubs show no significant regulatory effect on dust pollution. The oasis–desert ecotone represents the most sensitive zone for dust prevention. Targeted zoning management guided by land-use threshold constraints is essential to optimize regional ecological regulation, replace blind single afforestation strategies, and integrate ecological threshold criteria into territorial spatial planning. Land-use adjustment can effectively mitigate anthropogenic dust emissions, yet comprehensive dust control requires coordinated meteorological early warning systems and balanced management of agricultural production and ecological risk prevention.