Islands of Stability, orbits: pre-registration (r1)

This deposit fixes, before it is run, a model test of where proposition 3 of Islands of Stability (islandsofstability.com) stops applying. Proposition 3 says that under a stationary disturbance, exit from an island is memoryless. In the standard map, which describes motion near a resonance, an orbit that wanders near an island of regular motion tends to stick to it, so its stays are expected to have memory. The test has two arms. Undisturbed, the proposition's condition is not met and theory predicts memory; this arm shows whether the condition is needed. Disturbed by a random kick at every step, the condition is met and the proposition predicts memoryless stays; only this arm counts for or against it. Theory predicts both outcomes, so this is a check of the proposition's scope, not a discovery. Nothing in this deposit has been run. The test's random seeds are the first 16 hexadecimal digits of the SHA-256 of this record's DOI, so they could not have been chosen after seeing results. run_test.py requires the DOI and refuses to run unless every frozen file matches lock.json. Contents of bundle.zip (SHA256SUMS lists a hash for every file): PREREGISTRATION.md: the frozen document (r1), also uploaded on its own; PREREGISTRATION-draft.md is the draft (r0), kept for the record. lock.json and freeze.py: the SHA-256 of every frozen file, and the check (python freeze.py --verify). stdmap.py, sticky.py, design.py, run_test.py: the map, the stay statistics and the runner (python run_test.py --doi ). tests/: unit tests (python -m pytest -q tests). results/design.json: the island's measured reach and the starting square, from the deterministic map. Related: the pre-registration of the site's first instrument, snapshot 1 of the Map (10.5281/zenodo.22982434). Drafted with Claude (Anthropic), an AI assistant; every decision recorded in the document was made by the author.